NECCTON Presented at European Ocean Days: Supporting Ecosystem Forecasting for EU Marine Policy
During the Marine Knowledge for Ocean Health session at European Ocean Days, the coordinator of the NECCTON project outlined how Europe is developing the capacity to produce operational marine ecosystem forecasts and why this capability is increasingly relevant for policy and management.
He referred to the recent decline of snow crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea, where a warm‑water event between 2018 and 2021 contributed to a significant stock reduction and the subsequent closure of a major fishery. The example was used to show how environmental pressures can affect marine ecosystems and why forecasting tools are needed to assess potential system responses in advance.
Developing an integrated European approach
Europe is currently bringing together core components for ecosystem forecasting through three complementary infrastructures:
- EMODnet, which provides harmonised, long‑term, and standardised marine observations
- The Copernicus Marine Service, which supplies operational physical and biogeochemical ocean analyses and forecasts
- The EU Digital Twin Ocean, which combines observations and models in an interactive environment that supports scenario exploration
These elements form the basis for more systematic evaluation of how marine ecosystems may respond to climate change and human activities.
NECCTON’s contribution
NECCTON, funded under Horizon Europe, is expanding the representation of marine ecological processes within the modelling systems used by Copernicus Marine and the Digital Twin Ocean. The project is improving how models describe:
- Fish populations and other biodiversity components
- Benthic and seabed habitats
- Pollution interactions and pathways
- Food‑web dynamics
By improving the ecological detail in these modelling frameworks, NECCTON supports the development of ecosystem‑level forecasts.
Applications for policy and management
Once integrated into operational systems, these enhanced models can be used to test management scenarios and evaluate potential outcomes. This has applications for a range of policy areas, including:
- Fisheries management, through the assessment of alternative regulatory or spatial measures
- Marine protected area planning, by examining implications for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning
- Coastal and habitat restoration, through long‑term scenario evaluation
- Climate adaptation and resilience planning, using projections of ecosystem change
These tools allow decision‑makers to explore options in advance, based on modelled system responses.
Supporting Europe’s long‑term marine knowledge capacity
The presentation concluded by noting that Europe’s capability in ecosystem modelling is advancing through coordinated work across EMODnet, the Copernicus Marine Service, the EU Digital Twin Ocean and Horizon Europe projects such as NECCTON. Together, these initiatives aim to provide accessible, interoperable data and modelling systems that can be used to support sustainable management, policy development and long‑term planning for the marine environment.
